Tuesday, 10 February 2015

" No bullshit !! the real Aussie employment figures !! "

Sent: Wednesday, February 11, 2015 3:23 AM
 
Sent: Wednesday, February 11, 2015 3:14 AM
Cc: Phil Morgans ; Pierrette.Kelly@aph.gov.au ; Rachel Siewert ; Richard Colbeck ; Richard Di Natale ; Richard Marles ; Ricky Muir ; Rob Mitchell ; Robert Borsak MLC ; Robert Brown MLC ; Roza Sage ; Sam Dastyari ; Sam Dastyari ; Sarah Hanson-Young ; Scot Macdonald MLC ; Scott Buchholz ; Scott Ludlam ; Scott Morrison ; Scott Ryan ; Senator Canavan ; Senator Hellen Polley ; Senator Joe Bullock ; Senator Sean Edwards ; Senator Zed Seselja ; senator.gallacher@aph.gov.au ; Senator.O'sullivan ; senator.rhiannon@aph.gov.au ; Shane Dowling ; Shane Rattenbury ; Sharon Bird ; Sharon Claydon ; Sharon Grierson ; Simon Birmingham ; Sonia Hornery ; Sophie Cotsis ; Stephen Conroy ; Stephen Jones ; Stephen Parry ; Steve Whan ; Steven Ciobo ; Stuart Robert ; Sue Lines ; Suzanne Kay (Sue) Boyce ; Tanya Plibersek ; Terese.Mayer@aph.gov.au ; The Hon Stuart Ayres MP ; Thomas.McCrudden@aph.gov.au ; Tim Watts ; tony abbott ; Tony Burke ; Tony Zappia ; Trevor Khan MLC ; Warren Entsch ; Warren Truss ; Wayne Swan ; Will Hodgman
Subject: Fw: " No bullshit !! the real Aussie employment figures !! "
 
Sent: Wednesday, February 11, 2015 3:04 AM
Cc: John (MP) Cobb ; John Alexander ; John Cobb ; John Faulkner ; John Forrest ; John Hogg ; John Kaye ; John Madigan ; John Williams ; john.robertson@nswlabor.org.au ; Josh Frydenberg ; Julie Bishop ; Julie Collins ; Julie Owens ; Justine Elliot ; Kangaroo Court of Australia ; Kate Ellis ; Kate Lundy ; Kate.Barker@aph.gov.au ; Katy Gallagher MLA ; Kelvin Thomson ; Kevin Anderson MP ; Kevin Andrews ; Kevin Humphries ; Kim Carr ; Lara Giddings ; Larissa Waters ; Laurie Ferguson ; Linda Burney ; Linda Reynolds ; Lisa Chesters ; Louise Clare Pratt ; Louise Markus ; Luke Foley ; Luke Hartsuyker ; Mal Brough ; Malcom Turnbull ; Maree.Kent@aph.gov.au ; Maria Vamvakinou ; Marie.McMullen@aph.gov.au ; Marise Payne ; Mark Butler MP ; Mark Coulton ; Mark Dreyfus ; Mathias Cormann ; Matt Thistlethwaite
Subject: Fw: " No bullshit !! the real Aussie employment figures !! "
 
Sent: Wednesday, February 11, 2015 2:39 AM
Cc: Bronwyn Bishop ; Bruce Billson ; Bruce Scott ; C.Pyne ; Carol Brown ; Catherine King ; Cathy McGowan AO ; Cathy.Lovern@aph.gov.au ; Catryna Bilyk ; Chris Bowen ; Chris Hayes ; Chris Ketter ; Chris.Bourne@aph.gov.au ; Christine Milne ; Christopher Back ; Christopher Evans ; Christopher.Browne@aph.gov.au ; Claire Moore ; Clare O'Neil ; Clive Palmer MP ; Colin.Pryce@aph.gov.au ; Concetta Fierravanti-Wells ; Cory Bernardi ; Dan Tehan ; Darren Chester ; David Bushby ; David Fawcett ; David Johnston ; David Leyonhjelm ; David Shoebridge ; Dean Smith ; Deborah O'Neill ; Dennis.Jensen ; Dennis.O'Riely@aph.gov.au ; Don Page ; Doug ; Dr Andrew Leigh ; Dr Jim Chalmers ; Duncan Gay ; Ed Husic ; ElectorateOffice.BlueMountains@parliament.nsw.gov.au ; Emma.Garbutt@aph.gov.au ; Eric Abetz ; Federal Greens Office ; Fiona Nash ; Fiona.Ward@aph.gov.au ; Fred Nile MLC ; Gai Brodtmann ; Gai.Coghlan@aph.gov.au ; Gary Gray ; Gavin Marshall
Subject: Fw: " No bullshit !! the real Aussie employment figures !! "
 

( Me at my place )
I am coming out loud and proud and declaring the following:
1. I am an Aussie white bloke of European descent!
2. I am heterosexual!
3. Although non religious I tend to believe in the so-called Christian values/belief!
Sir Mike's Comments 10/2/2015.
Subject: “ No bullshit !! the real Aussie employment figures !! ”.
 
People if ever I needed it confirmed to me what a bunch of selfish! self centred! self indulgent mob
of bastards these pollies of ours are in regard to what has happened over the last couple weeks and this farcical so-called “Spill” in the LNP I believe speaks volumes!!!!
 
This hypocritical Shakespearian Tragedy was far more about saving their jobs at the next election
than it was looking after the average Aussies interests even if it meant installing a failed previous
LNP Leader like Malcolm Turnbull purely from a cosmetic point of view because he has a better voter appeal than Tony Abbott regardless whether he could do the job any better because lets face it Turnbull was a far more autocratic! and do it my way or else! when as the LNP Opposition Leader he could not convince the LNP to team up with the then Labor PM Gillard in regard to a flawed, costly and a unpopular with the voters “Climate Control Program ” and as history shows he went so far as to put his leadership on the line and lost it on a party room vote albeit by one vote but he still lost!!!
 

Tony Abbott PM.
 

Ex PM John Howard.
 
I did not vote for Abbott PM and nor would I for the many reasons I have mentioned in previous
mike’s comments some of which were (1) he was effective as Howards political head kicker
(2) he was effective Opposition Leader – note I state effective not good! – but as a PM I believe
he is like a fish out of water! out of his depth!
 
However having lived under dictatorships in Africa I can state categorically that Abbott PM ain’t
a dictator and it is just as much the gutless so-called LNP’s Cabinet teams responsibilities for not speaking up if they thought things were not going the right way for the country and put it to a vote if necessary?? anyway with the financial state of the country ? who would be politically naive enough to claim the job and do a better job if they did???
 

Leigh Sales ABC 7.30 Report.
 
Last night Monday the 9/2/15 when interviewing the PM Abbott kept on hammering the point that
(39) back benchers voted to get rid of PM Abbott and voted for the spill?
 
Now any intelligent person thinking outside the square would know that Leigh Sales could not
possibly come to that conclusion unless she or someone (1) knew who the (39) were ? and as it
was a secret ballot how would that be possible (2) was it possible that the majority voted for the
spill not because they wanted to oust PM Abbott but just to get the matter brought to a head and
just maybe the likes of Leigh Sales and the 7.30 Report production mob can stop wetting their
knickers with excitement with the hope they can bring the Abbott mob to their knees single handedly because their bias towards the Abbott mob over this spill motion and especially Tony Abbott was flashing like a light house.
 
 

Natasha Mitchell. Host of the ABC Radio National “ Life Matters ”.
 

Tim Colebatch – Journalist & Former Economic Editor of The Age.
 

Prof John Buchanan. Business School. Sydney University.
 
People while our pollies were self indulgently concerning themselves with just how much longer they can free load on the poor old Tax Payer and what is the best way of achieving their goal of political self preservation the (3) people above were discussing on Natasha Mitchell’s show “ Life
Matters ” on the 2/2/2015 a matter of great importance “ JOBS/EMPLOYMENT ” something our
pollies across the board and all political persuasions have had many expensive Tax Payer funded talk fests about but as you can see from the following article have failed to achieve anything spectacular unless we disregard their extremely well catered for employment situation?
 

Teflon Bill Shorten – Union & Federal Opposition Labor Leader and alleged rapist.
 
However if you think old Teflon Bill and his mob have the answers then I say you have to be kidding me! they had at least (6) years before the Abbott mob came to power in September 2013
and they did next to bugger all in my view except increase the business overheads especially for
small business putting 10’s of 1000’s out of work!!
 
Anyway Teflon Bill as a Union leader is only in my view interested in Unionised Labour where they
get the Labor Party political funds from – bugger small business.
 
Ok people read on and be concerned and the next time you hear/see any polies quote our
unemployment figures as these “ Mickey Mouse ” between 5.5 – 6.5% shout in a very loud voice
“ BULLSHIT ”!!!!!!!
 
However people if your happy hearing this pollie waffle then don’t whinge when you and your
kids become permanent welfare recipients – that is ofcourse until the governments run out of
funds to give you? what then????.
 
Sir Mike Howe – you can call me Mike. scroll down.
 
 
 
NATIONAL AFFAIRS

Australia today: a million new adults, just 385,000 new jobs

22 JANUARY 2015
 
Australia’s job market has failed badly since the global
financial crisis.
Writes Tim Colebatch.

In a little over three years from early 2005 to May 2008,
Australia’s working age population, as officially defined, grew
by just under a million people. The number of us with jobs
grew by a phenomenal 940,000.
Half a decade later, in the three years to December 2014,
Australia’s working age population grew by just over a million
people. Yet this time the number of jobs grew by only 385,000.
For every one hundred extra adults, in other words, we generated
just thirty-eight new jobs.
Compared to the ninety-four new jobs created for every one
hundred extra adults just before the global financial crisis, that’s
some shift.
Sure, the labour market did better in 2014, but only slightly.
Last year, there were forty-six new jobs for every one hundred
new adults – and just twenty-eight of them were full-time.
These figures are another warning that the Australian economy
is not doing as well as the cheerleaders claim. If they were right,
we would be seeing something like normal growth in jobs. But
for six years now, job creation has been nothing like normal;
and it still isn’t.
Nor, despite an upturn in job advertising, is it likely to be
normal any time soon. The big plunge in mining investment is
still ahead of us: it will happen over the next three years, at the
same time as the car industry shuts its doors and our main
customer, China, struggles with the looming bust of its huge,
oversupplied housing market.
We don’t analyse labour market statistics well in this country.
Financial commentators focus on the monthly zigs and zags
of movements in the seasonally adjusted jobs and jobless
numbers, as if they mean something. Usually they don’t.
The Bureau of Statistics monthly survey, big as it is,
is not big enough to stop the static created by different
random samples from drowning out the music of
what is really going on.
For twenty years, the Bureau has been telling us to focus
on its trend estimates. They iron out the monthly volatility
to try to come up with a truer index of what is happening
in the labour market. I follow its advice, and those are the
figures being quoted here.
Similarly, when you look at the labour market’s performance
over longer periods, you get a better understanding of what’s
happening than you get by focusing on monthly movements.
And when you look at the very long-term data – such as average
movements over thirty years – you get a benchmark of what is
normal, against which you can judge what is happening now.
What is “normal” jobs growth, as defined by the past? Well,
although the thirty years to mid 2011 saw two recessions and
three slowdowns, those years still averaged, in net terms,
690,000 new jobs for every million people added to the working
age population – or sixty-nine new jobs for every one hundred
new adults.
For every one hundred adults Australia added between 1981
and 2011, in net terms, thirty-six went into full-time jobs,
thirty-three got part-time jobs – mostly by choice – three
became unemployed, as the Bureau defines it, and twenty-eight
either left the workforce or never entered it.
You might think this is a poor outcome. But it wasn’t bad at
all, considering that the official definition of “working age”
includes everyone aged fifteen and over, including schoolkids,
carers and people in their seventies, eighties and nineties who
we would not think of as “working age.” And their numbers
were growing fast.
Employment climbed from 57.7 per cent of all adults in 1981
to 62.1 per cent in 2011, although almost half that growth was
in part-time work. Unemployment fell from 5.7 per cent of the
workforce to 5.1 per cent.
Two areas were of concern, though. First, hundreds of
thousands of men in their prime years dropped out of the
workforce completely. 
Some were homeless, disabled or suffering from a disabling
addiction, or living in areas with no job prospects.
In the 1960s, just 2 per cent of men in their prime years
(twenty-five to fifty-four) were outside the workforce; now
10 per cent of them are. They are not even looking for work;
they have dropped through the cracks.
Second, more than 70 per cent of the unemployed want full-time
jobs, but even between 1981 and 2011 almost half of the jobs
created were part-time.
The Bureau figures imply that 8 per cent of all job growth in
that period went to people who took part-time jobs because
they couldn’t find full-time work. What it calls underemployment
soared from 2.8 per cent of the workforce in 1981 to 7 per cent
in 2011.
But what made those thirty years good was that despite an ageing
society, workforce participation climbed from 61.2 per cent of the
adult population in 1981 to 65.4 per cent in 2011. That was mainly
due to the long surge of female employment, which swelled at all
ages over twenty-five, with dramatic growth in jobs among older
women choose to work on into our sixties and beyond
last June, 26 per cent of Australians in their late sixties – almost
300,000 people – were still in work. Even more surprising, perhaps,
125,000 people in their seventies or eighties were still working.
Roughly one in thirty of Australia’s workers are now sixty-five
or over.
But far more Australians retire completely in their sixties, and
life expectancy among older Australians is rising at startling rates:
for men aged sixty, life expectancy is expanding at the rate of nine
years in every half-century. That success story is creating headwinds
for the economy and the job market, and they are growing stronger
each year.
We could be doing a lot better than we are. In the past three years,
job growth has been barely half of its long-term average. Let’s look
at the numbers to see how the last million Australians to enter adult
life (in net terms) have fared, compared to those in the previous
generation:

These figures show how much the economy has failed since
2011 to keep up the momentum of the past.
Australia is simply not creating jobs – especially full-time
jobs – at anything like the pace needed to regain full employment.
Labour-intensive industries such as manufacturing and retailing
have struggled or shrunk; and as profits go, jobs go. Manufacturing
has lost almost 150,000 jobs since 2008; retailing has added
fewer than 20,000 jobs in that time.
Mining construction was the main driver of growth in 2011 and
2012, and it is a capital-intensive activity, creating few jobs.
Mining exports have been the main driver of growth in 2013 and
2014, and modern mining requires very few workers, operating
very large machinery.
That’s why only 38 per cent of the growth in the adult population
has found its way into new jobs. Almost two-thirds of our
population growth has ended up swelling the numbers outside the
workforce.
The Abbott government has tried to punish the unemployed by
making it harder to get the dole – all $36.83 a day of it – and
imposing more onerous reporting requirements. But it is clear
that they are the victims of the economy’s failure to create
enough jobs for those who want to work.
On top of that, most jobs created since 2011 are part-time,
yet most unemployed workers want full-time work. The lack of
jobs has seen unemployment grow to its highest level since 2002.

But because most jobs being created are part-time,
the Bureau estimates that the rate of underemployment ,
mostly people wanting full-time work, but forced to take
 part-time jobs – has shot up to a record 8.5 per cent of the
workforce.
More than a million Australians are now underemployed,
with profound effects on household finances, spending,
happiness and general wellbeing. The Bureau estimates that
the number of underemployed workers has swollen by
205,000 in the past three years, while the number in full-time
jobs grew by 145,000.
If someone tries to tell you how well the economy’s doing,
just remind them that.
There’s a third problem. The biggest growth in the adult
population is not among those who are employed, or
unemployed or underemployed, but among those who are
not in the workforce at all.
In the past three years, in net terms, for every one hundred
extra people of working age, forty-seven either left the
workforce, or never entered it.
Some of that loss, maybe half, is unavoidable: it reflects an
ageing society, which itself reflects good healthcare. The
impact of ageing on jobs is now intensifying as the
demographic bulge of the baby boomer generation moves
into its sixties; in the weak job market, even employment
rates among workers aged fifty-five to sixty-four are now
falling.
In four years, the number of adult Australians not in the
labour force grew by 650,000. The number in work grew
by just 481,000.
The number in full-time work grew by just 209,000. That
is not a sustainable trend.
These three problems – unemployment, underemployment,
and people dropping out of the workforce, essentially reflect a weak economy.
But they are intensified by the impact of an immigration
policy inappropriate for an economy in low gear.
There are two key differences between Australia now and the
Australia of the previous thirty years. The rate of population
growth has lifted sharply: in round figures, from 1.25 per cent
a year to 1.75 per cent.
And that is because the net migration rate has doubled,
from 0.5 per cent to a bit over 1 per cent.
Growth of 1.75 per cent means the population is growing by
almost 400,000 each year, and by a million every two-and-a-
half years or so.
It means that when the economy is growing by 2.7 per cent
a year, as it is, growth per head (the real bottom line) is less
than 1 per cent a year. And it means that an economy our
size needs to create more than 200,000 jobs a year – about
150,000 of them full-time – just to stop things getting worse,
let alone make up the ground lost since 2011.
A net migration rate of more than 1 per cent means that
each year Australia is adding between 200,000 and 250,000
more migrants than it is losing. I have no problem with that,
if there is enough work around to employ new and old
Australians alike. But the jobs figures make it clear that there isn’t.
The problem is exacerbated because a growing proportion
of migrants are being brought here, on section 457 visas and
other means, by employers to do specific jobs, rather than
employers training Australians to do them.
This inevitably means fewer job opportunities for existing
workers.
This shortfall could be made up if the temporary workers
spent enough money here to employ the existing workers
they displace, but that is unlikely. The Bureau does not
measure remittance payments – a serious omission in its
database – but it is clear that many temporary workers
are here precisely because they plan to send much of their
earnings home to their families.
In good times, there’s nothing wrong with that either,
but these are not good times. Immigration policies need
to fit society’s needs; running a high immigration program
amid low job demand is bad economic policy.
The Menzies government knew better; it controlled the
immigration tap to keep the long boom going. We should
learn from our past successes.
The result of our employer-driven policy is that people
born overseas took almost three-quarters of the net growth
in full-time jobs in the two years to April 2013. In net terms,
people born overseas gained 97,000 more full-time jobs,
while Australian-born people gained just 34,000.
That means the economy created only one new full-time
job for every ten Australian-born people aged fifteen and
over who joined the notional workforce. That is clear policy
failure.
Take all the figures together, and it is clear that the labour
market is doing far worse than the trend unemployment
rate of 6.2 per cent suggests.
The Bureau estimates that its broader measure of labour
force underutilisation, which includes the underemployed,
has risen to 14.8 per cent.
And it does not include the rapidly growing numbers entirely
outside the labour force.
Why Australia’s labour market failed so badly after early
2011 is another story, for another day. Poor policy choices
must take a lot of the blame. The international environment
was unhelpful, but successive governments and the Reserve
Bank made bad calls, for which our jobseekers are now
paying.
We need to focus more on how we create an environment
that will generate the jobs Australians need. •
 
 
Posted by at